The primary objectives of this analysis is to use ARIMA models to find if Photosynthetic Active Radiation is a more suitable explanatory variable to Net Ecosystem Exchange than salinity to forecast future Net Ecosystem Exchange of a scrub mangrove forest.
TS/PH 7 is located 25.19080491, -80.63910514 up Taylor River mainly characterized by scrub mangrove vegetation of the -Rhizophora mangle- species. This is an established FCE LTER site within the Taylor Slough Watershed.
Photosynthetic Active Radiation (par; W m−2 day−1) will be incorporated to the forecast function of the ARIMA model after the temporal dynamics of NEE were adquired. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test will be used to test stationarity. Ljung-Box test will test for independece and finally the Akaike Information Criteria (AIC) of the model outputs will be compared to test for model fitness.
ARIMA.NEE4 SALINITY MODEL
Table 1
| Model | df | AIC |
|---|---|---|
| arima.nee2 | 18 | 704.7663 |
| arima.nee5 | 10 | 683.6937 |
| arima.nee4 | 9 | 700.7734 |
Photosynthetic Active Radiation seems to be a better explanatory series of nee than salinity with a lower AIC as you can see in table 1.